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Penn State vs Illinois: Big Ten Tournament Second Round Preview

There are two schools of thought when it comes to probability. First, there’s the belief that the more you attempt a task with a given probability of success, the more likely you are to succeed at that task. The other, actually correct belief, is that the probability of a task does not change with each try, and rather, in the aggregate, your results will approach the given probability.

As a result of the first school of thought, you get “it’s hard to beat a team three times in a row.” The more you try a task, the more likely you are to succeed, right?